What’s The True Cost Of Electricity?

Electricity costs will skyrocket under Obama's "green" energy agenda.

There is a battle being waged about the true cost of electricity.

Proponents of various methods for generating electricity use the numbers that favor their particular interests. For some, this includes placing a price on carbon.

That’s why you will see different numbers purporting to show the true cost of electricity.

Here’s a brief overview of some of the methods being used.

Levalized Cost of Electricity (LCOE)

This attempts to take the different costs of building and operating a power plant over ten, twenty or thirty years, converted to equal annual payments in today’s dollars.

Unfortunately, the values attached to variables have a large influence over the final, so called, true cost.

Perhaps the most important variable is the discount rate used for determining the annualized cost of building the power plant. The second variable that is difficult to predict is the cost of fuel. For example, LCOEs calculated four years ago when the price of natural gas was three times as high as it is today, resulted in high LCOEs that were divorced from today’s reality.

The third is the cost of money and whether it should be included in the calculation. The fourth is the number of years over which to spread the cost. Finally operation and maintenance costs may or may not be included.

Another factor that can distort the LCOE is whether subsidies from the federal or state governments are included when determining capital or operating costs. (This is true for any method used to calculate costs.)

Overnight Cost

This calculation evolved due to the very long time it took to construct nuclear power plants.

The idea is to assume the plant will be built overnight so it will not incur interest expense. The same principle can be used for coal-fired power plants that take three years to build. It can also be used for natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) plants, but the time it takes to build these plants is relatively short, so it has less significance.

Bus Bar Cost

This excludes the cost of building the infrastructure around the power plant so that Bus Bar Cost is the cost of electricity as it leaves the generator. It includes the cost of money and the cost of operation and maintenance.

Cost per kilowatt hour (cents per kWh)

This is supposed to represent the cost of producing each kWh of electricity. It incorporates either the LCOE approach or the Bus Bar approach. It doesn’t include the cost of back-up power for when a plant isn’t producing electricity or for building transmission lines needed to bring the electricity from where it’s produced to where it can be used.

Cost per Kilowatt (Dollars per KW)

This is the cost per KW of constructing a power plant. It can utilize the overnight cost or include the cost of money.

While there may be accepted definitions for these various approaches, the fact remains that numbers reported by the press are invariably sloppy.

Even when reported accurately, the LCOE is fraught with misinterpretation. The factors having the greatest potential for causing confusion are the discount rate, the cost of fuel used in the calculation and whether the cost of carbon is included.

Capacity Factor

This isn’t always factored into the cost of electricity, but should be because it describes the amount of electricity that a power plant produces regardless of its nameplate rating.

The nameplate rating establishes the theoretical capacity of a power plant to generate electricity, but doesn’t take into effect when the plant isn’t generating electricity.

For example, the capacity factor of nuclear power plants is typically 90%. In other words, over the period of a year, it generates 90% of the electricity it theoretically could, based on its nameplate rating.

The capacity factor of coal-fired power plants is generally around 85%.

The same is true for NGCC power plants.

Wind turbines have a capacity factor of 30%, though recent studies indicate it may be much lower.

If it costs one dollar to build a power plant, but it can only generate 30% of the electricity that’s expected from its nameplate rating, it actually will cost 3 dollars to build a plant that can generate all the electricity expected from its nameplate rating.

This is why it’s wrong to compare the cost per KW of building wind farms with the cost per KW of building coal-fired or NGCC power plants, without including the effect of capacity factor.

It’s unfortunate, but true, that it’s necessary to question every cost number published by the media or by various groups.

Cost of Carbon

Another cost that can distort these various measurements is the cost of carbon.

This is especially true for coal fired power plants.

The cost of carbon can be $15/ton of CO2, or $50/ton of CO2, or even higher, depending on who is making the calculation.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) is using $15/ton when calculating the LCOE for coal-fired power plants.

The cost of carbon is being used by proponents of global warming to promote wind and solar. On a visit to several Senator’s offices in Washington DC, I was told by one of the staff member responsible for energy issues that the government needed to establish a price on carbon.

The bottom line?

Coal and NGCC power plants produce the lowest cost electricity, unless the cost of carbon is included when calculating cost.

Electricity from wind is, at best, twice as expensive as electricity from coal-fired or NGCC power plants.

Electricity from Solar is typically three times as expensive as electricity from coal-fired or NGCC power plants.

There can be exceptions, but this pattern generally holds true.

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Comments

  1. Elsie E Connelly says:

    That is precisely why Electric Cars will not fly in cost comparison to regular or flex-fuel cars. And our Odumba is giving money to Finland (of all places) to build electric cars that no one wants or will drive. I think Odumba flunked Geography (if he studied it at all) otherwise he would know that there is no way that Electric Cars will work in a majority of this country. All he seems to know about are the coasts, and they will soon drop off in the ocean (no big loss there).

  2. As an investor in alternate energy sources, it is my experience that there are some missing components of cost to the wind energy generation: cost of maintenance, and repair and unreliability of supply devices and wind levels, to name some big ones. The real consequence of the "unreliability" component is that no municipal or industrial provider can rely solely on wind (or sun for the 24/7 availability reason). Therefore, no power plants using so-called carbon sources can be retired (therefore wind is then just an added cost with no benefit). And our analysis is that wind generating costs are more like 5 times coal and natural gas, not twice as summarized in the above article.

  3. Now the truth is comming out about "alternative fuels" we have a coincidental report stating carbon emissions are up "ten times" over the last decade………………Interesting yes?……. where are facts porported in this report, let us all see them and subject them to proper scientific analyis………… the climate warming due to carbon emissions group are still pushing hard on their Gore Credits agenda! The EPA needs to be closed down as a first objective of the new (Republican) president………….

  4. Every report seems to miss at least 50% of the facts.
    Unreliable generation (wind & solar) require reliable backup generation to prevent grid failure or batteries. Either of these backups triples the cost of wind and solar power and causes more pollution from throttled down gas and coal generators.
    Energy used to charge electric cars is primarily from fuel fired plants that lose around 60% of the fuel energy burned to create electricity. This means that gas fired cars are at least 50% more efficient and pollute less than electric cars.

    Ethanol decreases gas mileage, corrodes engines and gas tanks and the raising of corn releases up to 4-times as much hydrocarbons (from fertilizer) as gas engines without ethanol. At least 25% of the cost of gasoline is to pay for and subsidize ethanol in gasoline.

    And on another subject, government employees do not pay taxes or contribute to their entitlements because their pay is taxes.

  5. @dhellew,
    Your points about wind & solar energy sources are right on target.
    Also ethanol is a tatally bad idea which I hope will be gone soon. The subsidies, the lower gas mileage, the cost to raise it makfe it far less 'green' than gasoline. Wish some of these ideas would be tested to find out what the unintended consequences would be before they are foisted on the public.
    You're one of the few people I've heard who recognizes that all gavernment employees do not create wealth, because, as you said, their salary is dependent on revenue from taxes collected. Bravo to you!

  6. Usa Flag Flyngal says:

    I am sure there are many, many, more comments that one could add here. The best one is, impeach Odumbo. Fire Jackson and can ALL of the idiots running the EPA and end it once and for all. Let Herman or Rick (maybe they would be t he team to clean up this WHOLE damn mess!

  7. Richard Wm. Faith says:

    Anyone who cares about America should be vigilant regarding representatives of UN Agenda 21, and be sure to escort them from our shores with torches and pitchforks. After that, a BOAT for them is OPTIONAL.

  8. The one thing the left is consistent about is ignoring the unintended consequences! They never get the real cost to the economy, to jobs and to the environment.

  9. Where's all the hidden TAXES, EPA gouging, permit fees, and all that SH1T ????????

  10. Power SourceCost of a kWh
    Nuclear$0.019
    Coal$0.027
    Natural Gas$0.081
    Wind$0.030
    Hydroelectric$0.009
    Solar$2.490

  11. Harold Clark says:

    Wind, solar and, what ever else the dimwit eviro's. come up with has one purpose to, close down capitalism. Obama's purpose is to destroy America, the land that he hates. And to install socialism if not full blown communism. And all of this by an illegal hitler type wannabe dictator.

  12. Harold Clark says:

    Deport all the illegals starting with Obama. Remove all the unelected hacks from government and we will get America back on track and away from communism.

  13. Winghunter says:

    Obama’s Sec. of Energy, Steven Chu: “Somehow we have to figure out how to boost the price of gasoline to the levels in Europe,”
    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122904040307499791.html

    Steven Chu: “Americans Are Like ‘Teenage Kids’ When It Comes to Energy” http://blogs.wsj.com/environmentalcapital/2009/09/21/steven-chu-americans-are-like-teenage-kids-when-it-comes-to-energy/

    Obama’s Energy Czar: Socialist Agent for World Government, Carol Browner http://www.prisonplanet.com/obamas-energy-czar-socialist-agent-for-world-government.html

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